Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season
July 92C.INVEST AoI: South of Hawaii Mentioned on TWO! Could this end the dry spell at last? YE :Darn, it went by-bye. No loner on the TWO. YE 00:17, July 29, 2010 (UTC) ::Back. YE 13:16, July 29, 2010 (UTC) :::Mentioned on TWO. YE ::::Yeah... but given a 0% chance of development. --Patteroast 12:40, July 30, 2010 (UTC) :::::20% now. Could this become Omkea? YE 14:18, July 31, 2010 (UTC) ::::::40%. Yikes. YE 02:30, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :::::::It's looking good. Atomic7732 03:54, August 1, 2010 (UTC) 92C.INVEST TCFA per JTWC. :D Bring it Omeka, and don't kill Hawai'i. Atomic7732 04:09, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :Hmm. Models seem to mostly keep it well south of Hawaii, but some head right for it. Could be very interesting! --Patteroast 06:45, August 1, 2010 (UTC) ::20% now, will likely be like Lana if it develops. YE 15:00, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :::Still looks good, TCFA is still up. Atomic7732 17:24, August 1, 2010 (UTC) ::::Down to 10%. Looks like it might have missed its window to form... --Patteroast 18:36, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :::::I wouldn'be so sure... take a look here. It's still very well organised. CPHC, stop cutting down 92C's confidence!!! Atomic7732 18:41, August 1, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Agreed. This could be a TD tonight. YE 19:13, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :::::::Hmm. It's had another burst of organization and is back up to a 30% chance. Either way, the models seem to pretty consistently miss Hawaii now. --Patteroast 03:17, August 2, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::... and back down to 20. This thing keeps bouncing back and forth. --Patteroast 07:54, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::10% again. This si back and four invest. It wont go back to 30% though, tell you that much. YE 12:43, August 2, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::Poof. Atomic7732 00:47, August 3, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::This is the cheating death invest, its back again. YE 00:58, August 4, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::We have two... 97L is back too. Atomic7732 16:51, August 4, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::::You wont believe this, it is back! YE 00:07, August 12, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::::Triple crown, can it make it this time? Atomic7732 00:17, August 12, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::::::Danit. It is gone again. Oh well. Kiss the cheating death invest goodbye. YE 14:14, August 12, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::::::::Guess what. It is 92C here back AGAIN for the FIFTH time. YE 13:13, August 13, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::::::::::Fifth? Where is the fourth? Atomic7732 14:27, August 13, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::::::::::::As an area of interest (see above). YE 14:35, August 13, 2010 (UTC) August 07E.ESTELLE AoI:over Honduras/Nicaragua Not on TWO, looks very good. GFS had a weak tropical storm popping up from that area the other day. GFDL or HWRF had it the other day too (just not as a focused on storm). Worthy of note. Atomic7732 04:00, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :it is in a hostile environment sadly. YE 14:58, August 1, 2010 (UTC) ::That's actually the main system that is part of the 10% probability on the Atlantic side. TWO says A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. C'mon become Estelle. YE 04:02, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :::Not sure where you see that... Atomic7732 06:06, August 2, 2010 (UTC) ::::Over in the Atlantic still. :P --Patteroast 07:53, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :::::True, but wont develop there. YE 12:45, August 2, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Now on TWO. YE 14:52, August 4, 2010 (UTC) 99E.INVEST The Invests are booming after the dud of a cyclone, Colin. hopefully some or all form? This one... looks better than 92L. Atomic7732 16:20, August 4, 2010 (UTC) :Meduim risk, now. Go 99E! YE 18:39, August 4, 2010 (UTC) ::Yikes this thing looks ridiculous. look here. YE 19:58, August 4, 2010 (UTC) :::Recon found winds of 60 mph and a pressure of 1009 mb. YE 21:41, August 4, 2010 (UTC) ::::This is gonna be our Seven-E! Atomic7732 22:24, August 4, 2010 (UTC) :::::Or lack of. lol Seven-E is gonna be skipped, its just gonna be Estelle if those wind measurements are right. 70%/high risk. Atomic7732 00:06, August 5, 2010 (UTC) ::::::A am little surprised this is not a Estelle now! YE 00:28, August 5, 2010 (UTC) :::::::Non-invest related... Are you typing fast or what? Recently you have been like, making crazy epic typos like "hloy banasnas" (lol). Invest related... You can kinda tell the convection is only to the west of it. It needs closed circulation. You can still see small strand clouds going around the center. Not anymore, but it was when you put the picture saying it looked ridiculous. It's Estelle now. Not offically though.Atomic7732 03:18, August 5, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::Put it this way, if the convection becomes a little more concentrated we got Estelle is on our way. YE 12:37, August 5, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::Are you kidding me? It's not Estelle yet? Get going 99! Fill your center and you are good 99!Atomic7732 15:16, August 5, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::I will guarantee you that they will by a near 100% at 11. YE 16:49, August 5, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::Still 70% actually. I saw the zone move, they updated it. Atomic7732 17:58, August 5, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::::That good new for Mexico, but please tell em why this is not a TS yet. The NHC is lying. YE 18:03, August 5, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::::What is up with these people? I remember Phet, JTWC was predicting Phet to avoid the Arabian Peninsula. The whole time, Phet didn't budge from aiming toward it. Why does it seem the people who aren't official do alot btter job at it (like people on hurricane forums or here)? The JMA hasn't named Domeng as Dianmu yet? What's up with that too? These people are crazy! Atomic7732 19:33, August 5, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Seven-E up on RBT. woho. AT last! YE 02:25, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :Finally! You can do it Seven/Estelle! Atomic7732 02:53, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::Offical now. YE :::I have updated Wikipedia. YE 04:50, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::no, it gonna bee another freaking dud. Shoot. YE :::::How could you say that? Atomic7732 15:13, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::::No, how could NHC say that? Atomic7732 15:17, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::::It has not been upgraded yet. YE 15:23, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::Development cannot be far off. Seven is well-organized and already looks like a storm. It just seems to have a bit of stage fright, and has been staying just below storm strength. Don't blame NHC when the storm's the one being flaky. :P --Patteroast 18:45, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::Seven you can do this! Perform your show! Atomic7732 18:55, August 6, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Estelle Up on RBT. Finally! YE 19:23, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :Official now. YE 20:49, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::Interesting fact... if the lists I keep are correct, this is the tenth use of the name Estelle in the EPac, making Estelle the most used name ever for the EPac. Next year the Atlantic should tie that when Arlene is used for the tenth time. --Patteroast 20:52, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::Estelle be good. Keep your name. I personally like that name. Also, it looks very good right now. Atomic7732 20:54, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::45 kts. Still strengthening. Atomic7732 02:56, August 7, 2010 (UTC) ::::::There goes the fact 2004 and 2010 comparison. Estelle might become a hurricnae at this rate. YE 02:57, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :::::::Yeah. Heh... Odd... That's the same thing I was thinking. Atomic7732 03:34, August 7, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::60 mph now. Foretasted to get up to 65 mph. ESTELLE STOP INTESFYING. Thank you. YE 21:09, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::RBT now has Estelle at 65 mph, and although I think Estelle hasn't peaked, I think it will not reach hurricane status (but in EPAC, I'm usually wrong). Darren23 | 01:21, August 8, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::Per the Darren forecasting errors, it has a good chance of becoming a hurricane. YE 03:49, August 8, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::Estelle is Weakening! hip! Hip! Hooray! YE 14:43, August 8, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::First you want storms, now you are happy it's weakening? Atomic7732 16:36, August 8, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::::It so the creepy comparison remains. YE 17:08, August 8, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::::Aha! Atomic7732 17:21, August 8, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::::::40 now. YE 18:19, August 9, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::::::TD now. YE 21:01, August 9, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::::::::Gone. Could regenerate though. YE 16:45, August 10, 2010 (UTC) IIRC,conditions around ex-Estelle are not conductive for development, and it will have a very small chance of regeneration at most, and its remnants will probably dissipate. Darren23 | 16:54, August 10, 2010 (UTC) 90E.INVEST AoI:Near Estelle 10% on NHC close to Estelle. YE 18:19, August 9, 2010 (UTC) 90E.INVEST Investd I think, 20% at the NHC about 100 miles form Estelle! Looks well-organized like 98E. YE 18:19, August 9, 2010 (UTC) :Um, its not an invest yet. Darren23 | 20:51, August 9, 2010 (UTC) ::It is now. --Patteroast 19:39, August 10, 2010 (UTC) :::10% now. YE 00:40, August 11, 2010 (UTC) ::::Poof. YE 16:21, August 11, 2010 (UTC) 91E.INVEST AoI:South of Mexico 20% chance on NHC. PLEASE BECOME HURRICANE FRANK. YE 01:10, August 11, 2010 (UTC) :New blob on NHC, 20% risk of development. --Patteroast 01:10, August 11, 2010 (UTC) :Gaaah, you beat me by seconds. :P --Patteroast 01:12, August 11, 2010 (UTC) ::sorry Pat. YE 02:40, August 11, 2010 (UTC) 91E.INVEST Up on IRC. YE 16:20, August 11, 2010 (UTC) :Not yet. Just because it's at 20% doesnt mean its an invest. ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/. Darren23 | 16:45, August 11, 2010 (UTC) ::30% now. PLEASE BECOME HURRICANE FRANK. YE 17:48, August 11, 2010 (UTC) :::It is listed as an invest on NRL at this point. NHC's got it at medium risk. --Patteroast 20:19, August 11, 2010 (UTC) ::::YE, it's got a good chance of that... Atomic7732 23:29, August 11, 2010 (UTC) ::::::TWO time. YE 23:39, August 11, 2010 (UTC) :::::::60% now! Party! YE 23:41, August 11, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::Argh didn't notice you put that. Hahaha. Woot!!!!! Here comes Frank! Atomic7732 00:39, August 12, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::All right. YE 00:50, August 12, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::Man, if this thing becomes Hurricane Frank, then this season is on a roll of being a mirror image of the 2004 season, except this year's Celia was much stronger than 04's Celia. However, it will be another dud, it won't affect land. Ryan1000 01:37, August 12, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Eight-E Up on RBT. YE 02:33, August 12, 2010 (UTC) :just Kidding. YE 02:42, August 12, 2010 (UTC) 91E.INVEST Lol, has that ever been done on here? Atomic7732 03:26, August 12, 2010 (UTC) :It has now. YE 04:32, August 12, 2010 (UTC) :80% now. Looks great. 23:58, August 12, 2010 (UTC) :::I really doubt this storm would ever apporoach hurricane intensity. Its gonna hit land before that, if the storm even forms. (Probably yes). Darren23 | 01:04, August 13, 2010 (UTC) ::::Hit land? I think it'll aproach hurricane strength, seeing as it's about where Estelle formed. Then die off in the same way. At least not a dud, but not a hurricane either. Atomic7732 02:20, August 13, 2010 (UTC) :::::IMO, from what I have tracked in the past few hours... it has tracked south. It was partially over land before it formed a CDO? This thing is Eight. I wouldn't be surprised if it was Eight in like... 30 minutes when advisories can be issued. Atomic7732 02:41, August 13, 2010 (UTC) :::::::Yeah, if it were to hit land it would be Baja. I am really hoping for a hurricane so the creepy comparison remains. YE 02:48, August 13, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::Moved inland. That was unexpected. HWRF was right. 91E is the "bad lcuk invest number" four the Pacific. Last round it did not develop like it should have. Last year, 91E came so close to becoming TC yet it did not, just like this system. Danret! Like every storms in the stupid year. This really sucks. I have had enough of this. This is ruining my summer. For once, make something exciting. Really. Please. YE 12:46, August 13, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::I assume you say this every year? 10%... wow... Atomic7732 14:25, August 13, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::Actually, I don't. Last years August was incredible, storm after storm after storm. The best srorm was rick, Darren please take Rick off the hurricane hall of fail. YE 14:39, August 13, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::Yay! I was right! No Hurricane! My forecast errors are gone in EPAC! And Rick was an absolute fail, look at the 2nd part of the storm, not the peak. Oh btw, so far, ATL is so far average, EPAC and WPAC are below average, surprisingly for EPAC, not surprising for WPAC (but this is La Nina, SST's in EPAC are way below average). Darren23 | 17:03, August 13, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::::After word Rick rapidly weaken, but then STOPPED after it which reached 70 mph, which was amazing. due to tis peak, Rick will likely earned a nomination in the Hurricane Hall of Fame when it will be eligible. YE 17:11, August 13, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::::Back over water now. YE 17:37, August 13, 2010 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Right now, based on Agatha's death update (146), I want to give it a 95-100% chance of retirement. Does anyone else have guesses on Agatha's chances? 22:35, May 31, 2010 (UTC) :It certainly would look like a good bet, but EPac retirements are so rare and all-over-the-map that I'm not willing to give even Agatha more than a 50% chance. It's certainly deserving, though. --Patteroast 17:09, June 21, 2010 (UTC) Why not? This storm is NOT like Alma 2 years ago, which, IMO, had virtually NO chance of retirement. Agatha, on the other hand, is like an EPac Allison, the THIRD most destructive EPac storm on record, as well as the 5TH deadliest. That's bad enough for me. 02:37, June 22, 2010 (UTC) :It's not so much that I think that Agatha's not worthy of retirement... it absolutely is, and should be retired. It's just, looking at the list of retired EPac storms, I don't feel entirely confident that retirement choices will make any sense. Then again, I hope I'm wrong. Most of the really bad misses were a couple decades ago. --Patteroast 08:15, June 22, 2010 (UTC) Well, I can cope with you on that. Fico, Fefa, Knut, and Iva(prob. retired to avoid confusion with I'w'''a), were all retired for unknown causes. However, Agatha will be retired by the same standards as storms like Pauline and Iniki were. Other storms, like 2002's Kenna, were retired, but Lane in 2006 wasn't, for 2x the damage, too. But Agatha is NOT Kenna or Lane. It's a big league storm, and it's an ''obvious case on retirement. The WMO will probrably be serious on Agatha just like they were on Allison in the Atlantic, and some less destructive Pacific examples like say, 2008's Alma and 1995's Isamel. 03:15, June 23, 2010 (UTC) :Hope you're right! --Patteroast 05:16, June 23, 2010 (UTC) ::I think Agatha will be retired. YE 00:27, August 7, 2010 (UTC) ::::Here is my predictions Agatha 86% what in the check happened here, the forth deadly storms in Guatemala history, for such a weak storm it killed 199 people Blas 1% fishspinner Celia 28% Cat 5, minor damage, Ioke got retired, should not be on the list in the first place. Darby 3% probably not YE 13:23, August 7, 2010 (UTC) Mine: (I'm the 98 guy just above, but with a username now) *Agatha - 95-100% - being the 3rd costliest, 6th, possibly 5th, deadliest in the East Pacific's history, as well as the costliest in Guatemala's history - yes, it was worse than Stan and Mitch, I cannot see why Agatha won't be retired. *Blas - 0% - total fishspinner, did nothing to no one. *Celia - 0% - Sorry, YE, but storms aren't retired for setting records, a la Bertha and Marco. Ioke did wipe out Wake Island, which is the reason behind its retirement. *Darby - 0% - Almost hit central America, but still, never affected land. *Estelle - 0% - still out there, but probrably will be a fishspinner, can't see it affecting land. Ryan1000 02:39, August 8, 2010 (UTC) So far, these are my predictions: *Agatha: 68% - I think it should be retired, but, well, EPAC retirements are unpredictable. $1 Billion and a load of deaths, for me, that's retirable. *Blas: 0% - *yawn* *Celia : 0% - Although a very rare June Cat 5, it is a fish in my book, well, although it hit some islands people have almost never heard of. In fact, I'll put Celia on my Hurricane Hall of Fail for its rapid weakening. *Darby: 0% - Other than being the earliest 2nd major hurricane, what did it do? *Estelle: 0% - See Blas Darren23 | 02:51, August 8, 2010 (UTC) :Celia is not an epic fail. It was suppost to weaken rapidly. Darren, you might wonna learn the definition of an epic fail. Colin is an example of one so is Bonnie.YE 04:01, August 8, 2010 (UTC) ::Not "epic", but a fail nonetheless IMO. Darren23 | 04:23, August 8, 2010 (UTC) Creepy comparison So far the storm's titles (NOT CATEGORIES) have been the same as the previous season with these names (2004). Both had Tropical Storm Agatha. Both had Tropical Depression Two, afterwards. Both had Tropical Storm Blas third. Both had Hurricane Celia after. Both had a Hurricane Darby fifth. And now, it looks like Tropical Depression Six doesn't want to become Estelle... Syntheticalconnections (talk)( ) 20:21, 15 July 2010 (UTC) ::Also, Darby 2004 and 2010 reached the same intensity. We also have 97E, and we could have 983 and 99E in a couple days. YE [[2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 19:54, 30 July 2010 (UTC) :Um, not to be mean or anything, but can we keep all non-related posts somewhere else like the IRC or Hurricane Wiki. Wikipedia talkpages are for discussing how to improve the article, not a general discussion. 'Darren23' | 18:28, 31 July 2010 (UTC) ::This one? Syntheticalconnections (talk)( ) 18:42, 31 July 2010 (UTC) :::Yes, but I really dont think what harm does it do making a comparison to 2004 and 2010. After all this is about the 2010 Pacific hurricane season. Anyhow, 97E is becoming toast sadly. YE [[2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:51, 31 July 2010 (UTC) ::::Sadly? Finally someone who favors the development. Yeah, it's only minor cloud strands, just giving us a hint it's there. (syntheticalconnections)Atomic7732 21:24, July 31, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Also, 2004 had Tropical storm Estelle and Hurricane Frank. YE 20:01, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::::Heh, when Frank gets here... he's gonna have a TOUGH time... Atomic7732 20:52, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::dot see why it would have a difficult time. YE 22:13, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::Seeing how all these storms are duds... The oceans aren't- I take that back. I think the basins are starting back up right now, so maybe it wont. Atomic7732 23:35, August 6, 2010 (UTC) AoI:about 600 mile south of Hawaii 10% on TWO. YE 18:57, August 13, 2010 (UTC) Mid-season Predictions What are you mid-season predictions. I think we will end up being 10-6-5. YE 04:06, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :Only 10 storms? I say 19 storms, 10 of which become hurricanes, and 3 become major. Atomic7732 17:12, August 3, 2010 (UTC) ::It almost the peak of hurricane season BTW. Remember last year we had 20 storms in a strong El Nino. We are in a La Nina. YE 14:55, August 4, 2010 (UTC) :::No way! I thought they both were supposed to just start up right now! Storm after storm after storm! The trends look like that for the Atlantic at least. Atomic7732 16:57, August 4, 2010 (UTC) ::::You may never know, thats what happen last year. YE 18:42, August 4, 2010 (UTC) :I can't say for sure; I still remember at about this time last year about the talk I had with SkyFury (I'm also "76") about the deadened basins worldwide. Like what I said last year, that active hot streak that started in 1995 is probrably closing up. The Atlantic has had nothing since Alex. The East Pacific had the highest June ACE on record, only to fall just as drastically last month to be the first time since 1966 when July was completely dead there. And the West Pacific? Like, are you kidding me? 3 JMA named storms as of now? And I thought 2009 was quiet enough. I think the final stats for the Atlantic will be 5-12 storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 majors. In the East Pacific, I think it'll be 8-13 storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors(with at least Agatha being retired). And the West Pacific, if they keep up on their dead streak, are probrably gonna get 14-21 storms, 7-11 typhoons, and 4-6 reaching category 3 or higher. I think we are in a 1977 period now, and it will remain that way for the next year or so. Then, the Pacific will go on a BIG hot streak for about two more decades or so, and the cycle goes on. Outside of the occasional ENSO event in the Pacific (1997/2006), everything has been quiet here. 03:52, August 5, 2010 (UTC) ::Um, actually, ATL was pretty average to slightly above, so by no means (this is La Nina, its expected) that ATL is dead, and by no means are we gonna see a 77 repeat. The EPAC spree was just an early season anomaly, probably getting some optimal environmental conditions (IIRC, Upward MJO). My predictions for EPAC are a 2007-type season, and I think it is possible for ATL to get to 15+ considering that it is La Nina. My predictions for WPAC are about at <25 storms.'Darren23' | 14:10, August 5, 2010 (UTC) ::After some thought, I'll revise my prediction to, 14 storms (counting TD's), 6 hurricanes, 3 major. Atomic7732 04:23, August 5, 2010 (UTC) :::It will be intresting, but remember after July the basins woke up especially the EPAC and then the WPAC. You many never know. I agree the activity cyclone is almsot ending. This is going to be our last La Nina starting 2012 expect a storm El Nino an the EPAC to have 25 named storms or so. The ALT season will turn dead, WPAC will get a little more active. YE 12:53, August 5, 2010 (UTC) :YE, I think the active years should go on for a bit more time than you think. Maybe appx 5-10 years due to Global Warming, and I predict we should see about a few more La Nina episodes.'Darren23''' | 14:10, August 5, 2010 (UTC) ::I personally dont believe in global Warming/Climate Change. But again only time will tell. YE 14:24, August 5, 2010 (UTC)